Tuberville leads Jones 51-40 percent in exclusive Gray and Alabama Daily News poll

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WBRC) - Tommy Tuberville has the edge in Alabama’s race for governor, while more Alabama voters believe the state is on the wrong track than the right one, according to new exclusive polling from Gray Media Alabama and the Alabama Daily News.

The Republican leads Democrat Doug Jones 51.2% to 40.0%, with 8.9% still undecided, in an exclusive Gray Media Alabama/Alabama Daily News poll of 500 likely 2026 voters conducted Oct. 16-17 by Cygnal with a margin of error of 4%.

Tuberville sits at 47.6% favorable, 43.7% unfavorable; Jones at 41.7% favorable, 43.3% unfavorable. But Tuberville’s vote share runs ahead of his image, and Jones is running out of room to grow: 95% of Democrats already back him, while undecideds lean Republican on the generic ballot.

“Well, I think it shows that even in this national political environment, it’s very favorable to Democrats,“ said Todd Stacy, publisher of the Alabama Daily News. ”Alabama is still a strongly Republican state. And so its nominee, Tommy Tuberville, is leading with enough to win, 51%. Now, you also got to look back at previous elections. Governor Kay Ivey won easily with 60% plus of the vote in her two elections. So he’s not nearly to her level. So those national Democratic headwinds really are impacting this race. Just not enough, according to this poll, to really put Tommy Tuberville in much danger in this election.”

Here’s the breakdown:

• Tommy Tuberville (R): 51.2% — 41.0% definitely, 10.2% probably
• Doug Jones (D): 40.0% — 36.3% definitely, 3.7% probably
• Undecided: 8.9%

And voters aren’t splitting tickets much — fewer than 1% back both Barry Moore for Senate and Jones for governor.

Where Tuberville is winning

Older and the most reliable voters are powering the lead. Tuberville dominates among voters 55 and older and holds a 22-point lead among people who’ve voted in four of the last four generals.

Regionally:

• Birmingham (41% of the sample): Tuberville 54%-37%; generic ballot R+19 here.
• Huntsville-Decatur (21%): Tuberville 54%-33%. His image is 51%-42%, Jones’s worst at 34%-48%. Tuberville runs 2 points ahead of Moore and the generic Republican — though 13% are still undecided.
• Mobile-Pensacola (15%): Tuberville 50%-43%, with only 7% undecided.
• Montgomery-Selma / Dothan / Columbus, Ga. footprint: the lone bright spot for Jones, who leads 49%-45%. It’s also the only region where Democrats edge the generic ballot, D+1.

On issues, Tuberville owns the security-and-taxes lane. Among the 24% who rank immigration, taxes, crime or infrastructure first, he leads 86%-9%. Immigration-first voters back him 97%-3%. On pocketbook issues he’s the GOP’s strongest messenger: jobs/economy voters favor him 51%-48% (6 points better than Senate candidate Rep. Barry Moore), and even among inflation voters — where Jones leads 48%-41% — Tuberville runs 3 points ahead of Moore. He also takes 11% of Black voters, roughly double Moore’s share.

Jones does out-poll the generic Democratic ballot by three percentage points, perhaps a nod to his high name recognition, though the Democratic candidate still has a net-negative favorability (-1.6) among the voters we polled.

“You’re seeing a lot of Doug Jones’ enthusiasm out there, a lot of frustrated independents,” Stacy said. “And those voters are turning to Doug Jones. It’s just a math problem. What Doug Jones needs to happen is for the electorate to essentially change - for a lot of those Republicans who say in this poll that they’re going to support Tommy Tuberville to just not go vote, right? That’s a strong possibility. I mean, enthusiasm for Republicans is way down. It’s one thing to answer a poll and say you’re going to go vote. It’s another thing to actually get out on election day.

For Doug Jones to have a chance in this race, he needs Tuberville’s favorability to be underwater. That’s not happened yet. So you may expect to see those attacks really start coming more heavy-handed, and maybe that’ll impact things. But right now, Tuberville seems to have kind of weathered that storm, and that’s why he’s above water and has a net favorability rating.”

Which way is Alabama headed? Pretty much split.

• Right direction: 41.9%
• Wrong track: 44.6%
• Unsure: 13.4%

No surprise, it’s partisan: 75% of committed Republicans say right direction, 83% of committed Democrats say wrong track. The swing voters in the middle? Just 18% say right direction, 52% say wrong track, and 30% aren’t sure.

“We asked about the state because this is asking about state elections,” Stacy explained. “We didn’t ask about the country. And I bet you’d probably even see a higher number of respondents, even Republicans, saying they’re disappointed about the direction of the country. But as a state, Republicans are still sticking in there, believing that the state is headed in the right direction. And so, you know, that’s an important measure. It’s also important to look at, okay, most of those folks that say the state is heading in the wrong direction are supporting Doug Jones. And he needs that number to climb.

Look, if I was the state legislature, if I was a legislative leader, if I’m the next governor, I’m looking at that number really closely because there is a lot of dissatisfaction out there amongst the electorate. And so no matter who wins and no matter what the makeup of the legislature is, they really need to look at that number, maybe even do some more research into that to figure out what’s going on."

Methodology: Probabilistic survey of 500 likely 2026 general election voters statewide, Oct. 16-17, 2026, via online panel and SMS, weighted to a likely voter universe. Margin of error ±4.38%. Sponsored by Gray Media Alabama and Alabama Daily News; conducted by Cygnal.

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