First Alert Weather: Fewer showers expected for Thursday

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) - First Alert AccuTrack shows us drying out across Central Alabama this evening. Fortunately, there is no severe threat with this showery weather in place, but you could hear some faint rumbles of thunder overnight. A few showers will be possible overnight, but much of us will stay dry. We’ll hold on to a mostly cloudy sky and likely see at least some patchy fog developing after midnight.

Some Showers Possible Thursday: The upper-level low spinning away across the Southeast will finally weaken and lift to the northeast tomorrow. We will hold on to a 30-40% chance for widely scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder Thursday afternoon, but we do not expect coverage to be as impressive as today. I think east Alabama will have the greatest chance to see showers tomorrow. Areas farther west will likely end up drier. We should start tomorrow morning off in the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures will likely remain below average tomorrow with highs in the lower 80s with northerly winds at 5-10 mph. It would not surprise me if a few spots only warm into the upper 70s in parts of northeast Alabama tomorrow.

Drying Out Friday: The upper-level low will likely move out as a ridge of high pressure moves into Central Alabama Friday. What does that mean? It means rain chances will lower and temperatures will begin to warm up! We’ll likely start Friday morning off in the mid 60s with a partly cloudy sky. I think we’ll end up partly cloudy Friday afternoon with only a 20% chance for an isolated shower or storm. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 80s Friday afternoon.

Hot Weekend: The first weekend of summer will definitely feel like summer! We are forecasting morning temperatures dropping into the upper 60s and lower 70s with highs in the lower 90s. Saturday will likely end up dry with only a 10% chance for a stray shower or storm. Sunday’s rain chance will likely remain low at 20% in the afternoon hours. Sunday could end up hotter than Saturday. Slightly drier air should filter into Central Alabama over the weekend, so the heat index won’t be a huge factor for us. It’ll remain a little muggy, but it won’t be super uncomfortable. Just stay hydrated and take several breaks if you have to work outdoors.

Next Big Thing: Our next chance to see scattered showers and storms will likely occur Monday. The timing and intensity of the storms remains a big question this far out in time. Long-range weather models hint that the ridge will weaken allowing a disturbance to develop to our north and sweep into the Southeast. Guidance is showing stormy weather moving in Sunday night into Monday morning. There’s a chance that the storms that move into our area early next week could become strong or severe with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats. Once these storms move through, we will likely end up mostly dry for the middle of next week with highs in the lower 90s and morning temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Bret continues to spin away in the Central Atlantic this evening. Bret has strengthened with 65 mph winds. It is moving off to the west at 15 mph. The latest guidance keeps Bret as a tropical storm as it approaches the Windward Islands. Bret will likely weaken and dissipate as it pushes into the western Caribbean over the weekend. Conditions appear unfavorable for this system to survive. Bret only has a tiny window to intensify before it encounters increasing wind shear that will slowly tear it apart.

We also continue to watch a tropical disturbance that’s spinning away just east of Tropical Storm Bret. This disturbance had difficulty developing yesterday thanks to shear disrupting the system. The National Hurricane Center continues to show a high chance for this system to develop into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days. The next name on the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane list is Cindy. Most of our long-range models keep this system out in the Atlantic as a “fish storm” and away from the United States.

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