First Alert Weather: Scattered showers, storms through Thursday

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) - First Alert AccuTrack shows a few thundershowers drifting across Central Alabama tonight an an upper-level disturbance spins over the Southeast. Rain chances will be around 30-40% overnight with the best chance to see a shower or storm across east Alabama. Otherwise, expect a mostly cloudy sky with mild and humid conditions in place overnight.

Next Big Thing: Our greatest chance to see scattered showers and storms will likely occur Wednesday as an upper-level low inches closer to Alabama. We will likely see a mostly cloudy sky tomorrow morning with a chance for some widely scattered showers. Temperatures are forecast to start out in the mid to upper 60s with highs topping out in the low 80s. We will likely see below average temperatures thanks to cloudy conditions and a greater chance to see scattered showers and storms. I have a 70% chance for off-and-on rain tomorrow. Severe weather isn’t expected tomorrow, but we can never rule out a strong storm or two. Winds will likely come from the northeast tomorrow at 5-10 mph.

Scattered Storms Continue Thursday: The upper-level low will continue to spin away across the Southeast Thursday giving us another round of scattered showers and storms. I can’t promise that everyone will see rain each day this week. Some spots could see a few rounds of showers and storms while others remain dry. Thursday looks to be our last best chance to see rain before we head into the weekend. Temperatures will likely remain below average with highs in the lower 80s. Rain chances will remain higher in east Alabama vs west Alabama.

Rainfall Potential: We are forecasting 1-2 inches of rainfall for Central Alabama over the next five days. West Alabama could end up a little drier with rainfall totals less than a half inch. Areas east of I-65 will likely pick up the highest rainfall totals. It wouldn’t surprise me if some spots pick up more than 2 inches of rain. The flood threat appears low in this setup, but we can never rule out isolated flash flooding in spots.

Mostly Dry Weekend: A drier and calmer weather pattern is expected as we approach the weekend. Friday is trending drier with only a 30% chance for a few showers or storms. The best coverage for rain Friday will likely occur in the northern third of Alabama. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 80s. The upcoming weekend is looking mostly dry with just a 10% chance of a stray thunderstorm on Saturday and a 30% chance for a few isolated storms on Sunday. Each day will end up partly cloudy with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Humidity levels won’t be too bad over the weekend, but it could increase late Sunday into Monday as another system pushes into the state giving us a decent chance for rain and storms next Monday.

Pattern Change Ahead? We don’t want to get your hopes up just yet, but models suggest we may finally get a prolonged break from this unsettled, stormy pattern by Tuesday of next week. A ridge of high pressure set to build over the Southern U.S. could extend eastward into Alabama, promoting hot and dry conditions for much of next week. That would mean more sunshine, less rain, but cranking up the heat into the 90s. No guarantees yet, but we’ll keep you posted.

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Bret formed in the Central Atlantic yesterday. It is the farthest east where a tropical storm has formed in the tropical Atlantic this early in the calendar year. It is very unusual to see tropical systems form this deep in the Atlantic in the middle of June. Normally tropical systems form in the Gulf, off the Southeast Coast, or in the Caribbean in June. Winds are sustained at 45 mph as of 7 p.m. CDT, but it is forecast to strengthen over the next 48 hours as conditions remain favorable for intensification. The National Hurricane Center predicts Bret will strengthen into a strong tropical storm as it inches closer to the Lesser Antilles. The forecast has Bret moving due to west and eventually impacting the eastern Caribbean by Friday and Saturday. Once Bret moves into the Caribbean, upper-level conditions appear unfavorable which should weaken the storm. We will have to watch Bret, but there’s no sign as of now that it will impact the Lower 48.

We are also watching another tropical wave behind Tropical Storm Bret. It has a high chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm in the next couple of days. Our global weather models also indicate that this system could become our next named storm (Cindy) as it moves across the Atlantic. We will also have to monitor this system, but I don’t see any immediate concerns that this tropical wave will impact the United States. We will watch both systems, and keep you updated on the forecast throughout the week.

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