FIRST ALERT: More triple digit feels-like temperatures, isolated afternoon storms for the start of the weekend
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) - The isolated showers and storms have mostly dissipated this evening, and tranquil weather is expected for the remainder of the night. We could have more low clouds and fog in the morning, but this will quickly give way to another partly sunny sky. Temperatures will start off in the lower to middle 70s. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s and it will feel hotter. If you plan on going to Rock the South, just pay attention to any alert you might get via the WBRC First Alert Weather app because an isolated passing shower or storm will be possible in the afternoon and evening.
The weekend features afternoon and evening scattered showers and storms, some strong. The driest weather during the morning hours, especially on Saturday. Morning temperatures will likely start out in the low to mid 70s with highs in the lower 90s. I would not cancel any outdoor plans, but you might want to make a plan B that involves the indoors just in case storms develop nearby. Storms this weekend could produce heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds. The severe threat remains low, but it is not zero. Both days will end up partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with southerly winds at five to ten miles per hour. Heat index could trend slightly hotter in the 100°F-105°F range.
The big story next week is the chance to see higher rain chances. A weak cold front is forecast to slowly move into the Southeast next Tuesday-Thursday. Rain chances could increase around 50-60% for the first half of next week. With higher rain chances and more cloud cover, temperatures may trend slightly cooler with highs in the upper 80s. It remains too far out to determine how far south this front will push into our area. Normally cold fronts like to stall across the state in the month of August giving us unsettled weather with heat activated thunderstorms. We will likely have several opportunities for your lawn and garden to get rain from mother nature. There’s a chance we could see slightly drier air filter into our area late next week if the front pushes into south Alabama.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University continues to forecast an active 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season.
NOAA’s August 2022 outlook is forecasting 14-20 named storms (wind speeds of 39 mph or higher), six to ten hurricanes (wind speeds 74 mph or higher), with three to five major hurricanes (Category 3-5). Their forecast is very similar to their original outlook issued in May. The only minor change they made in the forecast is that they are now predicting a 60% (versus a 65%) chance of an above-normal season. The likelihood of a near-normal activity has increased to 30% with only a 10% chance for a below-normal season.
Colorado State University’s (CSU) latest forecast continues to show an active season, but they lowered their numbers slightly. They are now forecasting 18 named storms, ten hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. They originally predicted 20 named storms, eight hurricanes and five major hurricanes back in July 2022.
We have already recorded three named storms this season, but July was very quiet after Colin formed. Dry air, Saharan Dust, and increasing wind shear kept tropical activity from developing in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico. We normally average three named storms by August 3, so the season is actually right on schedule. June and July are normally quiet months. 86% of the tropical activity in the Atlantic occurs after August 1. The season is still young.
Remember that it only takes one storm to make a hurricane season historic. Hurricane season typically peaks in September and ends on November 30th. Based on the latest forecasts, we will likely see a big uptick in tropical activity for the second half of August and September.
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