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Durant leads Britt, with Brooks a distant 3rd, in exclusive new Gray TV/Ala. Daily News poll

Gray TV/Alabama Daily News Poll U.S. Senate Race poll analysis
Published: Mar. 22, 2022 at 12:15 PM CDT
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BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) - In a race drawing national attention and millions of dollars already spent on ads, our new exclusive Gray Tv/Alabama Daily News poll shows the Republican primary for the chance to replace retiring Senator Richard Shelby is a close contest, but with some eye-catching movement. Our polling shows businessman Mike Durant with a 6 point lead over former Shelby Chief of Staff Katie Britt, and both well clear of Congressman Mo Brooks.

Ala. Senate GOP Primary Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll
Ala. Senate GOP Primary Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll(Gray TV/Alabama Daily News)

2022 AL Senate GOP Primary

Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll by Cygnal, +/-4%

Mike Durant - 34.6%

Katie Britt - 28.4%

Mo Brooks - 16.1%

Lillie Boddie - 6.5%

Karla Dupriest - 0%

Jake Schafer - 0%

Undecided - 14.4%

“It’s hard to ignore the real story here, Mo Brooks sliding,” says Alabama Daily News Publisher Todd Stacy. “Only 16% in this poll, that’s down from 40% of the electorate in August, that’s an incredible slide that I have you to attribute to him not getting his message out--he’s not had a whole lot of ads that really support his campaign, but more importantly he’s had about $1.5 million dollars of ads spent from PACS attacking him.”

Ala. Senate GOP Primary Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll
Ala. Senate GOP Primary Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll(Gray TV/Alabama Daily News)

2022 AL Senate GOP Primary

Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll by Cygnal, +/- 4%

March ‘22 - Mo Brooks 16%

August ‘21 - Mo Brooks 40%

Rep. Brooks was the frontrunner just a few months back, but now is facing multiple reports former President Trump is considering pulling his endorsement.

“I see that as, especially after this poll has come out, this’ll be the 2nd one in a row showing Mo Brooks sliding-- I have to see that as likely at this point,” Stacy says. “I don’t know where Trump goes, and we know his endorsement doesn’t mean as much as it used to, but I see it as likely that he’s going to switch his endorsement because he wants to win.”

Our poll asked voters about hypothetical runoff matchups since one seems all but certain, and Durant leads Britt by 13 points in a head to head, but 19% would be undecided.

Ala. Senate GOP Primary Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll
Ala. Senate GOP Primary Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll(Gray TV/Alabama Daily News)

2022 AL Senate GOP Primary

Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll by Cygnal, +/- 4%

Durant / Britt Runoff

Durant - 47.4%

Britt - 34.2%

Undecided - 18.5%

Both Durant and Britt would handily beat Brooks in a runoff according to the likely primary voters we surveyed.

Ala. Senate GOP Primary Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll
Ala. Senate GOP Primary Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll(Gray TV/Alabama Daily News Poll)
Ala. Senate GOP Primary Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll
Ala. Senate GOP Primary Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll(Gray TV/Alabama Daily News Poll)

2022 AL Senate GOP Primary

Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll by Cygnal, +/- 4%

Durant/ Brooks Runoff

Durant- 56.7%

Brooks- 23.3%

Britt/Brooks Runoff

Britt- 50.6%

Brooks- 28.3%

With the possibility of a runoff that wouldn’t include Brooks, if former President Trump’s endorsement is back in play, it could be a deciding factor.

“That’s gonna be a very close runoff, I think we can all agree, lots of money spent,” Stacy predicts. “So you need any kind of margin or edge that you can get. So a Donald Trump endorsement could be that margin. That’s why I think both candidates would love to see the former president ditch Mo Brooks and come to their assistance.”

According to ADN’s latest analysis of advertising data, Durant and political groups advocating for him make up the biggest spending block in the race.

Durant’s campaign has spent $1,979,096 in television and radio advertising to date. A pro-Durant super PAC called Alabama Patriots PAC has spent more with $2,153,174. That’s total positive spending of more than $4.1 million, a whopping figure in an Alabama primary so far.

The Katie Britt campaign is second in television and radio spending at $1,163,308 to date. There are two pro-Britt super PACs running ads promoting her candidacy. Alabama Christian Conservatives Fund has spent $239,540 in pro-Britt ads and Alabama Conservatives Fund has spent $1,376,662. That brings total pro-Britt TV and radio advertising to $2.7 million, an impressive amount that is still dwarfed by Durant.

The Mo Brooks campaign has spent $63,111 on TV and radio advertising to date, which isn’t much at all. However, Brooks is bolstered by multiple supportive PACs, including the Club for Growth Action PAC that has spent $2,482,475 both in support of Brooks and against Britt. Also, the School Freedom Fund has spent $536,389 in support of Brooks.

Notably, Alabama Futures PAC has also spent $2,482,495 on TV and radio attacking Brooks, a factor that has clearly led to his downfall in the polls.

So far, only Durant has not been the subject of attack ads on TV and radio.

  • Pro-Mike Durant TV and Radio: $4,132,270
  • Pro-Katie Britt TV and Radio: $2,779,510
  • Pro-Mo Brooks TV and Radio: $599,900
  • Anti-Mo Brooks TV and Radio: $2,482,495
  • Pro-Mo Brooks / Anti-Katie Britt: $2,482,475

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