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FIRST ALERT for a cold front to bring a few showers and weakening storms with it by morning

Published: Oct. 24, 2021 at 6:40 AM CDT|Updated: Oct. 24, 2021 at 9:53 PM CDT

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) - Patchy drizzle or a shower can’t be ruled out overnight but overall, our weather is quiet than compared to say Missouri, Arkansas, and Illinois where there are numerous severe, and tornado warned storms happening. That same system is moving our way for tomorrow but will be significantly weaker when it arrives here. The cold front associated with this storm system won’t produce a lot of rain across our area. The bulk of the energy and stormy weather will stay well to our northeast in parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Severe storms look unlikely for us tomorrow. Plan for a mostly cloudy sky with highs in the mid to upper 70s with a 40% chance for scattered showers and maybe isolated storms. Spotty development is possible by sunrise and then we will see the scattered activity move across the state during the late morning hours and early afternoon hours from west to east. It’ll become a little breezy Monday afternoon with westerly winds blowing at 10-15 mph.

Northwest winds set in on Monday night and that will allow cooler and drier air to filter in. Clear skies turn cloudy but despite the clouds we expect a chilly start in the middle and upper 40s by Tuesday morning. Turning partly sunny on Tuesday afternoon with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Cloud cover is forecast to increase again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Our Next Big Thing is the arrival of a strong cold front that will impact our area for the second half of the week. Cloud cover will likely increase throughout the day Wednesday as our next system begins to move in from the Midwest. Temperatures are forecast to start out in the lower 50s Wednesday morning with highs in the lower 70s. Rain chances will likely move in Wednesday evening and continue into Thursday morning though the timing between models is about a six-hour difference. The GFS shows rain moving in after 5:00 p.m. Thursday. The European model shows a later arrival with most of Wednesday staying dry and the bulk of the rain moving in Wednesday night. We think our biggest threats will be pockets of heavy rain and windy conditions. Rainfall totals could exceed one to two inches in some spots. Right now, that greater threat looks to set up south of us. Winds could be strong from the northwest at 10-20 mph with gusts near 35 mph Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Flood threat is low at this time, but not zero. Severe threat with this system will likely remain along the Gulf Coast and the southern half of Alabama, but we will monitor the latest trends over the next couple of days. Main threats will be damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat. Our severe threat looks low for Wednesday night due to the lack of unstable air. If anything changes, we will be the first to alert you!

Once the cold front moves through Central Alabama on Thursday, an upper-level low will likely stall across the Midwest and bring in rounds of clouds and breezy conditions across the Southeast. We will likely see cloudy conditions Friday and Saturday with widely scattered showers possible at any time. Temperatures continue to trend cooler Friday and Saturday. You’ll need a sweater and jacket Friday and Saturday. Combination of breezy conditions and cool high temperatures will make it chilly. Cloud cover may not finally move out of our area until Halloween. Temperatures will likely remain well below average next Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the upper 40s.

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