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UAB modeling expert predicts reduction in COVID cases by Thanksgiving

Published: Sep. 23, 2021 at 10:45 PM CDT
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BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) - Models forecasting the spread of COVID-19 are showing we are on the downward slope of the Delta variant surge according to local modeling expert Dr. Suzanne Judd.

According to her research, Dr. Judd says we could begin to relax as soon as November.

Dr. Suzanne Judd modeled multiple scenarios for Alabama, including what could happen based on the trends in other countries.

“We actually wound up where India, just a little under where India was when we got to the peak and came back down,” she explained.

Using that data coupled with local data, Dr. Judd’s models now show some hopeful signs, pending any additional variants.

“We’re now coming back down the other side and cases are coming down at roughly the rate they did in India,” said Dr. Judd.

That trajectory puts Alabama on a course to breathe a sigh of relief in just a couple months.

“Overall, the model is really looking like we are going to come back down and potentially be in decent shape by Thanksgiving,” she said.

She says not to let your guard down in the meantime.

Dr. Judd emphasizes this model is if no new variant emerges and causes cases to rise again.

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