FIRST ALERT: Nicholas expected to make landfall tonight, possible impacts on our rain chances by mid week

Published: Sep. 13, 2021 at 9:42 PM CDT
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BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) - Nicholas is forecast to make landfall tonight near Port Lavaca, Texas as a strong tropical storm and or possibly a Cat 1 hurricane. The forecast then shows Nicholas moving to the northeast and spreading heavy rainfall into east Texas and Louisiana Tuesday into Wednesday.

Flooding is likely in Texas and parts of Louisiana. The center then will move eastward across Louisiana on Wednesday and be located near central Mississippi by Thursday afternoon. We will remain east of the system and with plenty of moisture already in place, the remnants of Nicholas will further enhance our chance for showers and storms.

For the next 24 hours, very muggy weather will continue, with patchy fog overnight. We will have another partly to mostly cloudy sky on Tuesday, with scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the 80s on Tuesday, but any rain would quickly drop temperatures into the 70s.

Rain chances will increase on Wednesday and Thursday as the remnants of Nicholas move further east. We will need to be alert for a risk of localized flooding. The tropical moisture will linger across the region, so we’ll likely see more scattered storms and showers on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Other than Nicholas, we are watching two other tropical disturbances in the Atlantic. One disturbance northeast of the Bahamas has a medium chance of becoming the next tropical depression or storm. We are also watching a strong area of low pressure moving off the coast of Africa. It has a high chance of becoming better organized this week.

We will have plenty of time to watch this system closely. I’ll have more specifics in First Alert Weather at 9 p.m.

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