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FIRST ALERT: Rain from Tropical Storm Nicholas appears more likely for us mid to late week

Published: Sep. 13, 2021 at 5:54 AM CDT|Updated: Sep. 13, 2021 at 11:44 AM CDT
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BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) - As of the 4 p.m. advisory from the NHC, Tropical Storm Nicholas has winds up to 65 mph and moving north northeast at 12 mph. The forecast track continues to change. It is forecast to make landfall tonight near Port Lavaca, Texas as a strong tropical storm, or possibly a Category 1 hurricane. Forecast then shows Nicholas moving to the northeast and spreading heavy rainfall into east Texas and Louisiana Tuesday into Wednesday. Flooding is likely in TX and parts of LA. The center then will move eastward across Louisiana on Wednesday and be located near central Mississippi by Thursday afternoon. I bet this forecast changes again and we will get another update at 10 p.m. The easterly track certainly puts us in a better position to get more rain. It’s unknown how much, when and if severe weather will be a part of the mix.

Today, we continue to track widely scattered areas of rain and storms. First Alert for lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Warm and muggy! Rain coverage backs off to slight overnight. Tomorrow we will see a slightly higher concentration of showers and storms as moisture associated with Nicholas heads our way. Models certainly diverge after that, but based on the way the National Hurricane Center has been trending with their forecast and what the GFS model is showing, it looks like we could see some locally heavy rainfall and rounds of rain and storms on Wednesday into Thursday. Flooding can’t be ruled out if the 3-5″ the GFS is forecasting, pans out. Confidence is low right now though until we can nail down the track and timing.

Track the tropics, what’s happening locally on radar, watch our video updates, on the WBRC First Alert Weather App. For now, we have amped up rain chances mid to late week due to Nicholas, but also keeping scattered chances through the weekend too. No sign of dry weather, lower humidity, or fall-like temperatures over the next seven days. Other than Nicholas, we continue to watch 2 tropical disturbances in the Atlantic. One disturbance that could develop will be northeast of the Bahamas and southwest of Bermuda. It has a medium chance to become our next tropical depression or storm. The system that could develop looks weak, but it could impact parts of the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast by the second half of this week.

We are also watching a strong area of low pressure that will move off the coast of Africa. It has a high chance to develop this week. We will have plenty of time to watch this system closely. It is way too early to know how it could impact land areas at this time.

Tracking potential impacts from Nicholas.

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