FIRST ALERT: Tracking Nicholas and flooding concerns for Texas and La.

Published: Sep. 12, 2021 at 6:26 AM CDT|Updated: Sep. 12, 2021 at 8:50 PM CDT
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BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) - The big weather story has been the development of Tropical Storm Nicholas in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. If you go to the First Alert Weather App and select radar at the bottom then tap the three dots, you’ll see weather conditions, overlays, alerts, and map types. For weather conditions, I have precipitation and clouds selected. Overlays, I have tropical tracks and lightning selected. I have all alerts selected except winter. Now, pinch the screen with your fingers and you’ll see the view widen and you can interact with the map. You can tap the tropical storm icon and get forecast information, you can tap on a watch or warning and find out the details, and you can always tap your location at the top until a search pops up and you can search by city if you are curious about a forecast for a specific location. Our app is super helpful and can get your answers quickly.

Nicholas is forecast to move to the north-northwest at 10-15 mph today. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Nicholas to strengthen into a 65 mph tropical storm as it makes landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Victoria, Texas Tuesday morning. If Nicholas trends closer to the coastline of Texas, it could end up weaker. If it moves farther to the east, there’s room for it to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane. Once Nicholas makes landfall, it is forecast to slow down once it moves into east Texas Wednesday through Friday. It will likely move slowly and gradually dissipate over time. Flooding looks to be a significant threat along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Rainfall totals could add up around 6-12 inches for some spots in east Texas and western Louisiana. Some data suggests even higher and scarier amounts being possible. The worst-case scenario would be for the tropical system to stall out over land. The GFS model is the only one still holding onto a solution that keeps remnants of Nicholas moving to the east which would mean more rain for us. The rest of the Atlantic remains very active. We are also watching four other disturbances out in the Atlantic. The systems are pretty far away but we will have to watch these systems closely as they have the chance to track all the way across the Atlantic. We are in the peak of the hurricane season. The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30.

Tomorrow, have your umbrella with you because we have scattered afternoon and early evening showers and storms in the forecast especially for areas west of I-65. Tropical moisture surging in our direction will equal higher rain chances. Storms that form tomorrow could produce heavy rainfall and some gusty winds. Temperatures will end up a few degrees cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

Our next big thing is the return of rain chances and higher humidity levels. Southerly flow will help to bring in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Plan for a 30-40 percent chance for rain each day. IF the track of Nicholas changes, then we will likely have to increase the rain and storm coverage around the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

Tracking the tropics.

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