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FIRST ALERT: Cooler Temperatures Monday

Published: Aug. 1, 2021 at 6:32 AM CDT|Updated: Aug. 1, 2021 at 10:11 PM CDT
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BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) -Hope you had a wonderful Sunday. We were really fortunate to have smaller coverage of showers and storms this afternoon. Most of the storms that formed were along and south of I-20. First Alert AccuTrack Radar is showing some showers and storms continuing across the Southeast thanks to a cold front that is slowly moving through our area. Temperatures are in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Still very muggy tonight. I can’t rule out a few showers or storms overnight, but most of us will likely remain dry with overnight lows dipping into the lower 70s. Some patchy fog is possible Monday morning. I can’t rule out the chance to see some showers and storms tomorrow morning and into the afternoon hours, but the best chance for rain will likely stay in the southern half of the state. 

Monday’s Forecast: First day of school begins for Birmingham City Schools Monday. We’ll likely start tomorrow morning off mostly dry with a small chance for a few showers. Models are hinting that the cold front responsible for our rain chances this weekend will likely stall to our south tomorrow. Ripples of energy could develop to our west and spread eastward into Alabama tomorrow giving us a chance for showers and some thunderstorms. Best chance for rain will likely occur along and south of I-20. We could see showers move through during the mid-morning hours and possibly continuing into the afternoon hours. Rain chance tomorrow around 40%. We will likely end up with a mostly cloudy to overcast sky keeping temperatures from climbing into the 90s. Temperatures will end up 5-7 degrees below average with highs in the mid 80s. Plan for northerly winds tomorrow at 5-10 mph. 

Next Big Thing: Our next big thing is the chance for slightly lower humidity levels and temperatures a few degrees below average. Don’t plan for a big cool down with very low humidity levels. It is still summer after all! Temperatures Tuesday morning will feel a little refreshing compared to this past week. We’ll likely wake up with temperatures in the mid 60s. Tuesday afternoon is looking mostly dry with highs in the mid to upper 80s. I’ll hold on to a 20% chance for an isolated shower or storm mainly for far eastern Alabama. Humidity levels will remain comfortable for August standards Tuesday afternoon if you live west of I-65. Humidity levels could end up slightly higher if you live southeast of Birmingham. 

Tricky Forecast This Week: The biggest question mark about this upcoming week is determining how much moisture will make its way northward into Central Alabama. The cold front that moves through our area today and tomorrow will stall along the Gulf Coast and the eastern United States. Waves of low pressure could develop and move to the east over the next three to five days. The GFS is showing humidity levels returning Wednesday giving us a chance for widely scattered showers and storms. Another model (The European) keeps us dry with most of the moisture to our south. Since it’s unusual to see low humidity levels during this time of the year, I’m thinking humidity levels will likely increase by the middle and end of the week. Temperatures will also trend a few degrees warmer as we approach the weekend. We’ll go from the mid 80s tomorrow with highs approaching 90°F by Friday and next weekend. Overnight lows will also start to warm up into the upper 60s and lower 70s by next weekend. 

Rain Chances This Week: Monday could be our best chance for scattered showers. We’ll likely end up mostly dry for the middle and end of the week with rain chances around 20-30%. Best spots to see rain will likely occur south of I-20 and east of I-65. Areas farther to the north and west could trend drier. 

Near Average Temperatures Next Weekend: Next weekend is looking near-average with highs in the lower 90s and morning temperatures in the lower 70s. We’ll hold on to a chance for isolated storms, but no signs of significant rain threats. I would not cancel any outdoor plans for the upcoming weekend. 

Tropical Update: The tropics remain quiet for the next three to five days. Some of our long range models are hinting that we could see waves of moisture move off Africa and potentially develop into something in the Central Atlantic by next week. Nothing to be worried about at this time. Hurricane season normally peaks in August and September. If something develops, we will let you know. 

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