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UAB data model predicts Alabama could see around 13k daily COVID cases by late August

Published: Jul. 30, 2021 at 5:53 PM CDT
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BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) - A Ph.D., professor in UAB’s School of Public Health presented new data models indicating Alabama could reach a peak of 13,000 daily COVID-19 cases by late August.

Dr. Suzanne Judd used Alabama’s current transmission rates to predict how the trend will continue if left unchecked. She used Delta variant transmission rates in India and the United Kingdom to predict their peak as well. The graph below gives a visual comparison of all three epidemic curves.

Suzanne Judd, Ph.D., professor in UAB’s School of Public Health presented new data models this...
Suzanne Judd, Ph.D., professor in UAB’s School of Public Health presented new data models this week on COVID-19 cases in Alabama through Fall 202(UAB)

In addition, Judd’s model breaks down how theses numbers impact hospitalization, deaths, quarantine etc.

Suzanne Judd, Ph.D., professor in UAB’s School of Public Health presented new data models this...
Suzanne Judd, Ph.D., professor in UAB’s School of Public Health presented new data models this week on COVID-19 cases in Alabama through Fall 2021.(UAB)

Judd’s model provided the following key takeaways:

• At current transmission rates, Alabama would need 90 percent heard immunity to stop the spread.

• Around 20 percent of the population in Southern Alabama will be out of work or school, due to illness or quarantine, at the peak for three weeks centered around August 26th.

• It is hard to estimate the number of contacts a person may have going into the new school year. Depending on how exposure occurs in schools, an indoor gathering could result in 30 – 50 percent of a school, team, or group in quarantine at one time.

Key factors that could increase vaccination rates include:

• Increased vaccination rates

• Schools restarting

• People voluntarily wearing masks

• Change is personal behavior (i.e. avoiding large gatherings)

Judd says getting vaccinated, wearing masks in indoor public spaces and practicing physical distancing are the best practices to keep Alabamians safe.

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