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First Alert for Scattered Storms Friday

Published: Jul. 16, 2021 at 5:22 AM CDT
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BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) - Happy Friday everyone. We were mostly hot and dry yesterday, but we did see one storm develop right on top of Birmingham yesterday evening that produced heavy rain and a flash flood warning. Rainfall totals in the western suburbs of Birmingham recorded nearly 2-3 inches of rain. First Alert AccuTrack Satellite and Radar is showing us mostly dry with more cloud cover along and south of I-20. We are watching some showers off to our southwest along the Alabama and Mississippi border. Most of the rain is dissipating. Temperatures are very warm this morning with most of us in the low to mid 70s. I can’t rule out some patchy fog this morning in a few spots. Any fog that develops should be out of here by 8-9 a.m. Plan for a mostly dry morning with a small chance for light showers. I’ve increased today’s rain chance to 40% for the afternoon and evening hours. Storms that form today could produce heavy rain, gusty winds up to 30-40 mph, and frequent lightning. Models are hinting that our best chance for storms could occur between 3 p.m. - 11 p.m. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to warm up into the upper 80s to near 90°F. When you factor in the humidity, it will feel like it is in the mid to upper 90s. Hopefully the Barons game tonight will stay dry, but I can’t make any promises. Plan for the chance for a few thunderstorms between 7 and 9 p.m.. Temperatures will start in the low to mid 80s and cool into the mid to upper 70s by the end of the baseball game.

Weekend Forecast: The weekend is looking a little unsettled when it comes to increasing rain chances. I have had to increase our rain chance on Saturday to 60% as models are now showing higher coverage in our area. Temperatures will likely start in the lower 70s tomorrow morning with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Clouds will likely increase tomorrow afternoon with storm chances increasing. Plan for high temperatures to climb into the upper 80s with a 60% chance for scattered showers and storms. A few storms tomorrow could be strong, so make sure you continue to monitor your WBRC First Alert Weather App for frequent weather updates especially if you plan on spending some time outside at the pool or lake. Storm chances will remain high going into Sunday with a rain chance around 60%. Temperatures Sunday afternoon are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 80s. Next Big Thing: Our next big thing is the continuation to see decent rain chances for early next week. A cold front will try to move into the Southeast enhancing our rain chances Monday. I’m forecasting a 70% chance for scattered showers and storms Monday morning into the afternoon hours. The storm threat may end up south of I-20 Monday evening as the front stalls across our area. With extra cloud cover and higher rain chances, temperatures will trend several degrees below average Monday. Normally we should see highs in the lower 90s. We will likely end up with highs in the lower 80s Monday. Scattered storm chances will likely linger into next Tuesday with rain chances around 50%. High temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 80s Tuesday.

Lower Rain Chances by the Middle of Next Week: There’s a chance that we could see lower rain chances for next Wednesday and Thursday. The European model keeps us mostly dry while the GFS model shows afternoon storm chances still possible. It is summertime so I refuse to drop our rain chances to 0% at this point. I do think we’ll end up with more sunshine with only an isolated threat for pop up storms during this time frame. Rain chances could increase again next weekend as another cold front approaches the state. Potential Rainfall Totals: I think rainfall totals could add up around 1-3 inches over the next seven days. Like yesterday evening, some storms that develop could produce heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. Isolated flash flooding can’t be ruled out over the weekend and into early next week. Make sure you download the WBRC First Alert Weather App for the latest weather information.

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Have a safe and wonderful weekend.

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