IHME projections sees increased COVID deaths

Published: Jul. 13, 2021 at 5:42 PM CDT
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BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) - The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation out of the University of Washington has tracked the numbers of the COVID-19 outbreak. They are seeing numbers go up and it could be a serious problem in a few months.

The Delta variant and a large number of unvaccinated people are the main reasons why. The latest graph from IHME shows the number of positive COVID 19 cases on the rise and unfortunately that means more deaths.

“So for Alabama, we are projecting about 11,500 deaths by October first,” Dr. Ali Mokdad, IHME said.

IHME is also projecting up to 24,000 deaths of those Alabamians who died for health reason related to the pandemic by October 1. Dr. Ali Mokdad said the numbers are going up for a variety of reasons.

“People are not wearing the mask and mobility is back to normal as if we don’t have COVID-19. In many parts of the country, we have a high level of hesitancy when it comes to the vaccine,” Mokdad said.

Mokdad said IHME is projecting an increase in cases in the fall because people will move inside out of the fresh air in winter, but that is already happening in Alabama and in the south.

“That is what we are seeing in many southern states. People are moving indoors because of the heat. People are using air conditioning and not using fresh air inside of the house,” Mokdad said.

Mokdad said the pandemic will end when more people are vaccinated in the world.

The U.S., which has vaccines, can control it by getting vaccinated and wearing masks around crowds. Mokdad said the country is seeing an increase because people have dropped their guard on safety measures when they are not vaccinated.

He hopes that behavior will change and the numbers will start to fall again.

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