FIRST ALERT: Cold start Sunday, rain chance climbs mid-morning

First Alert Weather 9p 3-21-20

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) - It’s back to jacket weather for us tonight as temperatures will be tumbling into the mid to upper 40s. The sky will be mostly cloudy and by daybreak showers will be developing to the west. The sky will remain mostly cloudy overnight and dry weather is expected, with a chilly east to northeast breeze.

Another warm front will start to build north across our area tomorrow and this will bring an increasing chance of rain by mid-morning. This wet weather will continue into the afternoon, with a few periods of rain possible Sunday night and into the day on Monday. I can’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm during this time period, however we’re not expecting any major organized severe weather.

WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT WEEK: The latest forecast guidance suggests the higher rain chance on Monday may come during the first part of the day, with some breaks in the afternoon. The setup will continue to favor a few scattered showers and thunderstorm through Tuesday and Wednesday. We will need to be alert on Tuesday afternoon for the possibility of a stronger storm, especially across our northern counties. The main threats would be damaging wind gusts and hail. That being said, we will experience some decent periods of dry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday as the coverage of rain will be more limited. You will also notice a significant rise in temperatures, with highs nearing 80º by mid-week.

You may have noticed that at times last week, we enjoyed some sunny periods, and breaks in the rain, as most of the wet weather was located north of our area. A ridge of high pressure over the gulf has been quite effective in keeping us dry at times. In fact, this same ridge has been responsible for abnormally dry conditions along coastal areas. Parts of the Florida panhandle right night are actually dealing with severe drought conditions.

This ridge will have an impact by Thursday making for a dry day across our area and be ready to crank up the AC. Highs on Thursday will be reaching the middle 80s! Certainly one of the warmest days so far this season.

THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND: The big story for the end of the week will be another cold front that will reach the state on Saturday. I’d plan on mostly dry weather, with a few isolated showers or a storm on Friday. The front will bring an increasing chance of rain and possibly a few storms next Saturday. We will mention the possibility of a strong storm for Saturday but for now I’m not seeing an impressive set of severe weather parameters.

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