A new Raycom News Network Senate Election poll conducted by Strategy Research finds the race in a statistical tie nearly two weeks after allegations of sexual misconduct against Republican Roy Moore rocked the campaign.
The exclusive poll of 3,000 likely Alabama voters finds if the election were held today, Moore would receive 47% of the vote to Democrat Doug Jones with 45%. Five percent of the respondents remain undecided with 3% indicating plans to Write-In a candidate.
The margin of error of the survey is plus or minus two percent, meaning Moore and Jones are statistically tied three weeks before the special election.
The new poll suggests allegations against Moore have chipped away at his lead, which was 11% in a November 8th Raycom News Network poll conducted by Strategy Research.
When asked “what do you think about the allegations made against Roy Moore,” 45% believe all or some of the allegations; 34% do not believe the allegations; and 21% believe some or all of the allegations, but say it has not changed their vote.
The allegations, which have catapulted the Alabama race onto the national stage, has deeply divided many voters. Among Republicans, Sen. Richard Shelby has said he will write-in a candidate rather than vote for Moore. Gov. Kay Ivey, a Republican, has said she has no reason to “disbelieve” Moore’s female accusers, but will vote for Moore to maintain a Republican vote in the U.S. Senate.
Among party lines, nearly half (48%) of Republican voters surveyed do not believe the allegations. Another 24% of Republicans say they believe some or all of the allegations, but it has not changed their vote.
Seventy-four percent of Democrats believe some or all of the allegations.
Several women have accused Moore of past sexual misconduct, starting with four women who told the Washington Post that as teenagers in the 1970’s, Moore, then in his 30’s and an assistant district attorney, made sexual or romantic advances.
Moore has denied any sexual misconduct.
The poll was conducted Monday night. Those questioned were identified as active registered voters who participated in either the 2016 General Election for president or the 2017 primary for the Alabama Senate seat and must have said "yes" when asked about plans to vote in the December 12th special election. Fifty-eight percent identified themselves as typically voting in the Republican primary and 34% identified themselves as typical Democrat primary voters. Eight percent considered themselves as independent or not typically voting in party primaries.
The winner of the December 12th election will complete the term of former Sen. Jeff Sessions, who left the Senate in February to serve as U.S. Attorney General. The term ends in 2020.
Gov. Robert Bentley appointed Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange to fill the seat until a special election could be held with other statewide races in 2018. Once Bentley resigned from office, Gov. Kay Ivey moved the special election to December.
Strange, who lost to Moore in a runoff, will serve as senator until the December election is decided.
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