Republican Roy Moore leads Democrat Doug Jones by 11 percentage points in a new Raycom News Network Senate Election poll conducted by Strategy Research.
The survey of 3,000 likely Alabama voters finds Moore receiving 51% support to 40% for Jones. Nine percent remain undecided in the exclusive poll conducted on Monday.
"The value of a poll depends on a range of circumstances. A number of recent polls have shown us with a strong lead, but at the end of the day, the one poll that matters above all others is taken on Election Day," Moore campaign chairman Bill Armistead said. “The people of Alabama strongly supported President Trump in 2016 and Judge Moore is the conservative leader Alabama needs in Washington to support the president’s reform agenda.”
The survey also asked voters about President Trump’s job approval. Overall, 55% approve of the president’s job performance.
“Trump’s approval numbers are on par for what I would have expected them to be,” said pollster Jonathan Gray of Strategy Research. “I think there are a lot of people in Alabama that voted for Donald Trump because they didn’t like Hillary Clinton and I don’t think they were ever in love with Donald Trump to begin with.”
Ninety-three percent of those surveyed who approve of President Trump’s job performance identify themselves as Moore voters. Eighty-seven percent of those who disapprove of the president said they would vote for Jones. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus two – three percent.
"Polls will go up and down,” Jones said in a statement. “We are focused on working hard for every vote from the top of the state to the bottom. We just spent all day in north Alabama on Monday. We are spending today and tomorrow in Mobile and Baldwin counties talking about issues and meeting as many people as possible. There is definitely an energy and momentum."
“I think the challenge for the Jones campaign is bigger than what these numbers show,” Gray said. “Even if he were able to close the gap, how do you turn out Democrats in a state that hasn't had a viable Democratic Party in almost a dozen years?”
The winner of the December 12th election will complete the term of former Sen. Jeff Sessions, who left the Senate in February to serve as U.S. Attorney General. The term ends in 2020.
Gov. Robert Bentley appointed Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange to fill the seat until a special election could be held with other statewide races in 2018. Once Bentley resigned from office, Gov. Kay Ivey moved the special election to December.
Strange, who lost to Moore in a runoff, will serve as senator until the December election is decided.
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